The STI fell 1% below 4,900 as Iran war drags on, oil back up over US$100

Date: March 30, 2026

• Oil and Wall St called the shots as the STI lost 1% at 4,898.18
• On Wall St, the Dow has entered correction territory, other indices not far behind; Treasury yields surged to multi-month highs
• Oil back up over US$100 a barrel
• Sert invests 50 million euros in data centre development fund AiOnX
• SATS has limited direct exposure to Middle East: Maybank
• Shareholders push Koh Brothers for in-specie distribution of Oiltek stake
• Retail investors tend to be contrarian investors: SGX Research
• Factory output fell 0.1% in Feb

War worries dragged the STI 1% down, just below 4,900

The Straits Times Index dropped 50 points last week as the war in the Middle East entered its fourth week and oil prices remained elevated.

Daily trading was dictated by how the US market performed overnight but also by movements in the futures market – on Thursday for example, the STI first rose into positive territory but closed with a 17-points loss after the Dow futures dropped 300 points.

By the end of trading on Friday, the index had lost its grip on the 4,900 level when it closed at 4,898.18, recording a net loss of 50 points or 1% for the week.

Average daily volume traded was S$2.13b versus S$2.3 the week before.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average entered correction territory on Friday

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed in correction territory on Friday, as the major indexes marked their longest weekly losing streak since in nearly four years.

The Dow fell 794 points, or 1.7%, to close 10% below its Feb. 10 closing high and join the Nasdaq Composite in correction territory.

The Nasdaq dropped 2.2%. The S&P 500 fell 1.7%, moving another step closer to its correction level of 6280.74.

The major indexes fell for a fifth week in a row. Both the S&P 500 and Dow are riding their longest weekly losing streaks since May 2022, according to Dow Jones Market Data.

The Nasdaq has dropped in 10 of 11 weeks, something that hasn’t happened since June 2022.

US Treasury yields surged

U.S. Treasury yields surged, with benchmark rates hitting multi-month highs and capturing global investor attention.

The 10-year climbed to 4.48%—its highest since July 2025—while the 2-year and 30-year also reached their strongest levels in months, reflecting shifting expectations around monetary policy.

For the week, the S&P 500 lost 2.1%, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite slid 3.2%, and the blue-chip Dow fell 0.9%.

Oil prices back up to US$100 a barrel

On Friday afternoon, Secretary of State Marco Rubio confirmed a new worry, reported Thursday by Bloomberg, which is that even after the war ends, Iran may charge tolls on vessels passing through the strait of as much as US$2 million each.

“Iran may decide that they want to set up a tolling system in the Straits of Hormuz. Not only is this illegal, it is unacceptable, it’s dangerous to the world, and It’s important that the world have a plan to confront it,” Rubio told reporters following a meeting of the Group of Seven industrialized nations.

Shortly before the Friday close, WTI crude oil futures rose 6.1% to US$100.25.

Though President Donald Trump pushed back his original Friday deadline for Iran peace talks to April 6, worries on Wall Street about how long the war will drag on and keep oil prices elevated.

Sert invests 50 million euros in data centre development fund AiOnX

Stoneweg Europe Stapled Trust (SERT) has invested 50 million euros (S$74.1 million) in AiOnX, its sponsor SWI Group’s data centre development fund via a

a mandatory convertible loan (MCL).

The loan carries a 7.25 per cent annual cash coupon and is projected to provide an about 2% uplift to distribution per share on a pro forma basis, said the manager of SERT.

Its coupon is equivalent to about 3.6 million euros yearly, paid semi-annually and ranking senior to all common equity distributions by AiOnX.

The 50 million euro investment principal was funded with recent sales proceeds, available cash and unsecured debt facilities, said SERT’s manager. In addition, there will be transaction costs of about 800,000 euros.

“The investment also offers meaningful long-term value, as the MCL converts into common equity in AiOnX at a significant discount,” said Simon Garing, chief executive of SERT’s managers.

SATS has limited direct exposure to Middle East: Maybank

In a “buy’’ report on airline handling agent SATS, Maybank said it views SATS as relatively resilient despite ongoing Middle East tensions, supported by its diversified global network and limited direct exposure to the region.

“The key risk lies less in direct exposure and more in second-order effects, particularly through reduced airline capacity, flight rerouting and uncertainty over jet fuel availability, which could affect schedules and cargo throughput’’ said Maybank.

“Unlike airlines, SATS has no direct fuel exposure, but higher oil prices could dampen passenger travel and cargo volumes, especially for non-essential goods. With only about 3% of revenue exposed to the Middle East (Saudi Arabia, Oman), near-term earnings remain intact’’ said the broker.

Maybank said it based its sensitivity analysis on volume-led shocks, using oil as a proxy for demand.

“This implies a -5% to -8% downside in a prolonged conflict and a 0% to +3% upside under a swift de-escalation for FY27E PATMI (profit after tax and minority interests)’’.

“Our FY26 forecasts are unchanged due to the limited remaining impact and manageable Middle East exposure…but trim FY27E PATMI by 3% and maintain BUY on SATS’’. Its target price for the stock is S$4.52 versus Friday’s closing price of S$3.56.

Shareholders push Koh Brothers for in-specie distribution of Oiltek stake

Mainboard-listed Koh Brothers said it has received a requisition from certain shareholders for a resolution to distribute Oiltek shares in specie to its shareholders.

The proposal targets the group’s interest in mainboard-listed Oiltek through a two-step process.

The requisitioning shareholders want the group to get its 54.8%-owned subsidiary, Koh Brothers Eco Engineering to distribute its entire 97.4 million Oiltek shares to Koh Brothers Eco shareholders, including its parent Koh Brothers.

After receiving its majority portion of those shares from the engineering arm, which is also mainboard-listed, Koh Brothers Group would then pass them directly to its own shareholders on a pro-rata basis, according to the plan.

The board, led by Koh Brothers Group executive chairman and group CEO Koh Keng Siang, is seeking legal advice to determine if the requisition notice is valid and legally binding before deciding on its next steps.

In the meantime, the company urged its shareholders to remain cautious and wait for further material developments as the board evaluates the request.

Retail investors tend to be contrarian investors: SGX Research

Over the first 17 trading sessions of March, retail investors net bought S$638 million of Singapore stocks, lifting cumulative retail net buying in local stocks for 1Q26 to S$675 million as of 24 March, said SGX Research in a 25 March update.

“Over the same period, institutional investors were net sellers of S$46 million, with market makers and active traders effectively bridging the gap between net retail buying and net institutional selling’’ said SGX Research, adding that the recent surge in retail demand follows a string 2025 when retail investors accumulated S$2.6 billion of net buys in Singapore stocks.

SGX Research also said the top 15 stocks  bought averaged a 7.9% decline in total return in March, in contrast to the 15 stocks that booked the most net retail selling which averaged 3.2% total returns.

“The divergence again highlights a contrarian, value‑seeking bias among Singapore retail investors, with net buying focused on daily laggards over leaders’’ said SGX Research.

Among the top 15 buys were DBS, Yangzijiang Shipbuilding, Genting Singapore, CapitaLand Ascendas REIT, UI Boustead REIT, iFAST, OCBC and PropNex.

Factory output fell 0.1% in Feb

Factory output unexpectedly dipped 0.1% year on year in February, dragged by the biomedical cluster, a sharp reversal from January’s downwardly revised 12.9% growth, and broke a five-month expansion streak.

February’s performance was also in stark contrast to private-sector economists’ estimates, who had predicted a median 14.1% expansion in a Bloomberg poll.

Excluding the volatile biomedical manufacturing cluster, however, industrial production expanded 3.9%year on year. This was compared to January’s downwardly revised 19.9% increase.

All clusters recorded declines in factory output in February, with the exception of the lynchpin electronics sector. The Economic Development Board attributed the declines largely to plant shutdowns during the Chinese New Year period.

Still, economists noted that Singapore’s factory output grew 6.9% overall over the first two months of 2026, which evens out the impact from the Chinese New Year period.

Maybank economists Chua Hak Bin and Brian Lee expect Singapore’s factory output to contract slightly in March due to the “shock” of the Middle East conflict.

“The fallout from the Gulf War outbreak will likely be more apparent in the March manufacturing data, which could see manufacturing stagnate or contract slightly,” they said.

OCBC chief economist Selena Ling said Singapore could see a contraction in industrial production in the second quarter of 2026.