Monthly Market Wrap: Sell in May and Go Away? A Reality Check as the STI struggled to recapture the 5,000 level

Date: May 4, 2026

• Despite crossing 5,000 twice in April the STI finished at 4,912.69
• The gain for the month was 0.6%; for the week ended 30 April it was a loss of 0.2%
• Geopolitical tensions caused by Iran conflict was the main drag
• The Strait of Hormuz was in focus as oil dipped below US$100 a barrel on peace talks hopes which led to nothing
• Oil closed the month above US$100
• Banks and Singtel were the main index movers
• Wall St rose to new highs on tech earnings as Fed kept rates unchanged
• MAS tightened to ward off inflation
• DBS 1Q profit up 1% to S$2.93b, will pay S$0.81 dividend
• Second liners enjoyed heavy play and enjoyed large percentage gains in some cases
• Sembcorp led institutional inflows in April, Oiltek among best performers: SGX Research
• Lum Chang Creations seeks shareholders’ nod on bonus issue, lifting of MD’s moratorium

 

Struggling to regain the 5,000 mark

April proved to be a pivotal month for the Singapore stock market, marking a noticeable shift in sentiment after a strong run earlier in the year.

While the Straits Times Index (STI) had entered the month with momentum, buoyed by optimism surrounding policy support from the Monetary Authority of Singapore’s Equity Market Development Programme (EQDP) and sustained liquidity, developments over the course of April introduced a more cautious tone.

The month began on a relatively firm footing. The STI hovered near the 5,000 level and even crossed it twice, reinforcing confidence that the upward trajectory seen in the first quarter could be sustained.

The first time was on the 14^th when it closed at 5,007.57 and then again on the 20^th when it ended at 5,004.07.

Unfortunately, in both cases the momentum only last for one more day – on the 15^th the index closed at its high for month at 5,021.2 and on the 20^th, it ended at 5,014.96.

As it turned out the index finished the month at 4,912.69 registering a gain of just 27 points or 0.6% for the month. In the holiday-shortened final week of April, the loss was about 10 points or 0.2% whilst average daily volume was S$1.84b.

Geopolitical tension caused by Iran conflict

The dominant factor behind the shift to what most obviously a more cautious stance was geopolitical tension, particularly the escalating conflict in the Middle East. As the situation intensified, oil prices surged past US$110 per barrel, triggering concerns over global inflation and economic stability.

Even though prices dipped below US$100 mid-month in response to news of peace talks in Pakistan, skepticism abounded. This proved well-founded as the talks eventually failed and led to oil rebounding above US$100 towards the end of the month.

For investors, this introduced a layer of uncertainty that had been largely absent in previous months. Markets became increasingly sensitive to headlines, with sentiment swinging between risk-on and risk-off depending on developments on the ground.

As of Friday, Brent crude settled at US$108 a barrel and WTI at US$102.

Focus on the Strait of Hormuz and peace talks that led to nothing

The previously-little known Strait of Hormuz leapt into the public’s consciousness following the 28 Feb outbreak of war in the Middle East after the assassination of the Supreme Leader of Iran.

Iran closed the strait to foreign vessels in response to a US naval blockade that began on April 13, leading to a major shipping blockade of this key global economic artery.

The stalemate persisted into late April 2026, with Iran stating the strait would remain closed until the US blockade lifted.

Over 20% of global oil and gas supplies were disrupted during this period, with reports of gunboats firing on ships attempting to pass.

Markets also reacted to news of peace talks between the US and Iran that were held in Pakistan though they eventually led to nothing.

Volatility rose and the STI fell almost continuously in the final week

This was reflected in the volatility observed throughout April. Gains on certain days, often driven by regional rebounds, were quickly offset by losses in subsequent sessions.

Towards the end of the month for instance, the market experienced a string of consecutive declines, underscoring the fragility of investor confidence. This was most apparent in the final week when the STI fell for three consecutive sessions before rebounding on Thursday, mainly driven by DBS.

Banks and Singtel were the main index movers

As always, the performance of the STI was heavily influenced by its key constituents. The three local banks—DBS, OCBC and UOB— and Singtel remained central to market direction. While the banks showed resilience for much of the month, their movements became more mixed as sentiment weakened.

Similarly, real estate investment trusts (REITs), which are sensitive to interest rates and yield expectations, experienced fluctuations as investors reassessed the macro environment.

Wall St rose to new highs on tech earnings as Fed kept rates unchanged

The stock market closed the week higher as markets digested a barrage of strong earnings reports from Big Tech firms while weighing the Federal Reserve’s divided policy decision and fresh uncertainty around global oil supply.

The U.S. central bank was in the spotlight after keeping its policy rate unchanged at 3.50%-3.75% for a third straight meeting, citing uncertainty over the economic outlook. There was an unusual split in the voting during the gathering, which saw four dissenting votes, the highest level of dissent since 1992.

On the earnings front, results continued to drive sharp stock-specific moves. Apple reported quarterly numbers that exceeded Wall Street expectations, as the iPhone 17 line continues to impress consumers.

Meanwhile Amazon, Google, and Microsoft showed that heavy spending on AI is paying off in spades.

For the week, the S&P 500 gained 0.9%, the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite advanced 1.1%, and the blue-chip Dow increased 0.6%.

MAS tightened to ward off inflation

MAS “increased slightly” the rate of appreciation of the Singapore dollar nominal effective exchange rate (S$NEER) policy band, allowing the Singapore dollar to strengthen at a faster pace to reduce imported inflation.

The central bank raised its 2026 forecast for core and headline inflation to 1.5–2.5%, up from 1.0–2.0% previously, citing surging energy prices and global supply disruptions caused by the Middle East conflict.

Although the move was measured, it signalled a shift away from the accommodative stance that had supported markets.

DBS 1Q profit up 1% to S$2.93b, will pay S$0.81 dividend

DBS Group will pay shareholders S$0.81 in dividends for the first quarter of 2026, as its net profit for the period grew 1% on record wealth management fees to S$2.93b, beating a $2.88 billion forecast by analysts in a Bloomberg poll.

The latest dividend payout is up from S$0.75 per share in the year-ago period. It comprises an ordinary dividend of S$0.66 and a capital return dividend of S$0.15. The payout is expected to cost Singapore’s biggest bank about $2.3 billion.

DBS Bank shares jumped after its results’ announcement, surging S$1.94 or 3.43% to close at $58.50 on volume of 15.4m.

DBS’s jump spilled over to the other two banks, both of which ended higher on the day and thus helped push the STI up sharply.

Second liners enjoyed heavy play and enjoyed large percentage gains in some cases

Throughout the month even as blue chips faltered there was heavy rotational playing of smaller stocks, which in some cases produced large percentage gains.

Last week for example, JEP Holdings jumped S$0.06 or 15% to S$0.46 with 2.7m traded on Monday, whilst ISDN rocketed up S$0.115 or 24% to S$0.595 on Tuesday on volume of 33.5m.

Another top performer was AddValue Tech, which surged S$0.043 or 36% to S$0.161 on turnover of 388.2m on Monday following release of a “buy’’ by Maybank.

“With the potential listing of SpaceX, the wars in Ukraine and Iran, global space and drone valuations have surged in the past few months, especially in the US. Global peers are mostly loss-making and trading at an average price-to-sales multiple of 85.6x, significantly higher than Addvalue’s 11.3x’’ said Maybank.

“Addvalue is exploring a potential listing of its Inter-Satellite Data Relay System (IDRS) business in the US, which could lift its valuation upon a successful listing. We peg our target price at a 65% discount to global peers, at 30.1x FY27E price-to-sales, lifting our target to SGD0.31 from SGD0.12’’ said Maybank.

Sembcorp led institutional inflows in April, Oiltek among best performers: SGX Research

In a 14 April Market Update, SGX Research reported that net institutional inflow in April has been the strongest in Industrials, Technology and Utilities sectors.

“Within Technology, inflows have included businesses such as AEM Holdings, UMS Holdings and Frencken Group, which operate within semiconductor manufacturing and test ecosystems’’ said SGX Research, adding that industrial stocks including ST Engineering, Seatrium and SATS have also seen inflows, with exposure spanning defence, infrastructure, and logistics‑related businesses.

SGX Research also said Sembcorp Industries has recorded the highest net institutional inflow in April and is trading close to its consensus target price of S$6.92, whilst Oiltek International ranked among the strongest performing stocks among the 30 stocks that booked the highest net institutional inflow over the first 8 sessions of April.

Lum Chang Creations seeks shareholders’ nod on bonus issue, lifting of MD’s moratorium

Lum Chang Creations (LCC) has scheduled an extraordinary general meeting (EGM) on May 25 to seek shareholder approval for a 1-for-1 bonus issue and its transfer from Catalist to the mainboard.

The EGM serves as the final hurdle for the urban revitalisation specialist, which already secured in-principle approval from SGX in February.

To facilitate the move, LCC has to address minimum shareholding spread requirements.

The group is proposing to amend its existing moratorium undertakings to permit managing director Lim Thiam Hooi to sell up to 7.7 million shares via a placement. This will increase the proportion of shares held by public shareholders.

Additional resolutions to be voted on at the EGM include a proposed bonus issue of up to 330 million new shares on a 1-for-1 basis to reward shareholders, and plans to replace its existing share issue mandate with a new one to comply with a mainboard rule post-transfer.