STI fell 0.1% to 4,842.27 as oil hit US$100 a barrel

Date: March 16, 2026

• Oil price surged to US$100 a barrel, STI underwent volatile week
• US stocks closed weaker again
• In the US, stagflation talk is starting to make its rounds
• This week’s FOMC meeting: no rate cut expected
• DBS & OCBC are preferred stocks among banks: RHB
• Jardine Matheson 2025 underlying profit up 11% at US$1.7 billion
• SGX’s Feb securities daily average value of S$2.1b was highest in six years
• UI Boustead REIT ended its debut 8.5% below offer price

With oil pushing past US$100  barrel, the STI underwent a volatile week

It was a volatile trading week for the local market, with the Straits Times Index plunging about 92 points on Monday, then rebounding 104 points on Tuesday.

A surge in oil prices to US$100 a barrel late in the week brought on selling pressure on Thursday and Friday, with the net result being that the index recorded a 6 points or 0.1% loss at 4,842.27 for the five days.

US stocks closed weaker again

On Wall Street, the major indexes swung between positive and negative territory, moving pretty much inversely to swings in the global oil benchmarks.

The headline consumer price index held steady in February but most observers believe that there will be no rate cut for the foreseeable future.

“Despite weaker labour market data announced last week, and the benign inflation backdrop displayed by the data (on Wednesday), the Federal Reserve is very likely to keep policy rates on hold at next week’s meeting, as the war in the Middle East introduces many questions about the paths of inflation and growth,” wrote BlackRock’s Rick Rieder.

The war in Iran was the market’s main driver. West Texas Intermediate rose 3.1% to US$98.71 a barrel on Friday, while Brent crude oil futures rose 2.7% to US $103.14.

On Friday, stocks initially rallied despite the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) slashing its fourth-quarter gross domestic product growth estimate in half to 0.7%.

The BEA also released a January core personal consumption expenditures price index that was hotter than economists anticipated. The early rise then gave way to weakness and the major indices all closed sharply down on Friday.

For the week, the S&P 500 lost 1.6%, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite dipped 1.3%, and the blue-chip Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 2.0%.

In the US, stagflation talk is starting to make its rounds

Friday’s disappointing US inflation numbers, combined with February’s shockingly weak jobs report, are reviving fears of the dreaded S-word: stagflation.

Markets dread that toxic mix of a weakening labour market and stubborn inflation—last seen during the energy crisis of the 1970s—because it puts both the economy and the Fed in a bind.

“The concerns are that we are heading for stagflation, and although we think those fears are premature, clearly a shorter engagement [in Iran] could help allay those fears,” wrote Chris Zaccarelli, chief investment officer at Northlight Asset Management in a report in US newspaper Barron’s.

“There are two paths for markets right now—the better outcome is a shorter war. If the conflict stretches longer than expected, we could see even more negative impacts.”

This week’s FOMC meeting: no rate cut expected

As of Friday, the futures market was pricing in a 99% chance that the US Federal Reserve will keep interest rates steady at its Open Markets Committee meeting this week.

For the April meeting, the chance of rates being unchanged was 95%.

DBS & OCBC are preferred stocks among banks: RHB

Singapore banks are expected to face a “modest operating environment” in the months ahead, although the recent rise in geopolitical tensions has likely injected further volatility into the sector’s outlook, said RHB in a note last week.

Against this backdrop, RHB named DBS and OCBC as its top picks, with DBS “slightly ahead” due to better dividend-per-share visibility and a higher dividend yield of about 6%. It also said it prefers banks with stronger asset-quality metrics amid the uncertain environment.

As for UOB the brokerage said that there could still be “lingering concerns” over its asset quality and provision buffers even though its forecasted net income for FY2026 is expected to chalk up the strongest rebound as credit cost normalises.

The brokerage maintained its “neutral” stance on the banking sector, with a “buy” rating for DBS and OCBC. A rating for UOB was not given in the report.

RHB’s target prices are S$63.50 for DBS and S$23.45 for OCBC.

Over the week, DBS gained S$0.31 or 0.6% at S$55.31, OCBC fell S$0.19 or 0.9% to S$20.63 and UOB rose S$0.09 or 0.2% to S$36.16.

Jardine Matheson 2025 underlying profit up 11% at US$1.7 billion

Hong Kong-based conglomerate Jardine Matheson reported an 11% increase in underlying profit to US$1.7 billion for the financial year ended Dec 31, 2025.

This was up from US$1.5 billion for FY2024, and came as full-year revenue fell 4% year on year to US$34.2 billion, from US$35.8 billion previously.

The group’s net profit – comprising its underlying business performance and non-trading items – for the year came in at US$1.1 billion, reversing from a net loss of US$468 million for FY2024.

Earnings per share stood at US$3.78 for FY2025, compared with a loss per share of US$1.61 a year earlier. On an underlying basis, earnings per share rose to US$5.72 from US$5.24.

Jardine Matheson declared a final dividend of US$1.75 a share, bringing its full-year dividend to US$2.35 a share – a 4% increase from the previous year.

The latest dividend will be subject to shareholder approval at the group’s annual general meeting on May 7 and paid out on May 13; books close on Mar 20.

UI Boustead REIT ended its debut 8.5% below offer price

UI Boustead Real Estate Investment Trust (REIT), Singapore’s first mainboard and REIT listing for the year, fell at its trading debut on Thursday.

Its unit commenced trading at S$0.805, about 8.5%  below the initial public offering (IPO) price of S$0.88. The counter rose to S$0.835, and ended the day at its opening price, with nearly 103 million shares transacted. It finished the week at S$0.825.

Despite the counter opening at lower than its IPO price, The Business Times quoted Citi’s head of South-east Asia equity capital markets as being positive about the REIT’s portfolio quality and its growth prospects.

Yew Jingkai, also flagging the market’s “proven track record for drawing global institutional capital into the sector”, said: “The IPO highlights Singapore’s strength as a leading global exchange for REIT listings.”

The listing of UI Boustead REIT brings the number of REITs and property trusts listed on the SGX to 42; their combined market capitalisation exceeds S$100 billion.

SGX’s Feb securities daily average value of S$2.1b was highest in six years

Singapore Exchange (SGX) said that its February performance had the highest securities daily average value (SDAV) since 2020 – up 45% year on year to S$2.1 billion, propelling total securities market turnover up by 30% year on year to S$38.5 billion.

This broad-based market strength was accompanied by the Straits Times Index (STI) crossing 5,000 for the first time, reaching an all-time high of 5,041 on Feb 23. This was supported by broad-based strength across real estate and industrials.

The benchmark index advanced 2%  month on month, closing February at 4,995.07, which represents an 8% increase for the year.

Trading activity across all stock segments was elevated, SGX said, with STI turnover rising 38% year on year to S$1.4 billion. Furthermore, small and mid-cap turnover soared 135% on the year on the back of sustained institutional demand, while retail daily turnover jumped 45% to hit its highest level in 13 years.

Exchange-traded funds (ETFs) also experienced a significant acceleration in trading momentum. Monthly ETF turnover surged 172% year on year to S$1.1 billion, driven by net inflows of S$643 million, which marks the highest level since December 2024.